For Canadian charities, the economic uncertainty heading into fall is about more than interest rates or market volatility. The latest Canada-U.S. trade tensions is creating another layer of uncertainty for organisations already balancing rising demand for services / supports, fundraising pressures and constrained operating budgets.
What does this mean for charities?
First, expect pressure on both revenue and expenses. Economic uncertainty can affect household giving, corporate donations and sponsorships, while tariffs and supply-chain disruption may increase for some organizations the cost of goods, technology, equipment, food and other essentials. Charities should revisit fall and year-end budgets and stress-test their assumptions.
Second, demand for services may rise even further. If tariffs contribute to more job losses, higher prices or reduced household purchasing power, more Canadians may turn to food banks, housing organizations, employment programs, non-profit childcare, “camps” for school-breaks, health supports and other community services. Organizations should consider whether their current capacity and cash reserves can absorb a potential increase in demand. If you organization is a membership driven model, could you see an increase in applications for subsidised accounts?
Third, donor communication matters. Donors may themselves be feeling financial pressure or uncertainty. A clear case for support – focused on measurable impact, changing community needs and responsible stewardship – can help maintain confidence and reinforce the importance of supporting an organization “today”. Charities may also want to examine whether their fundraising mix is overly dependent on a small number of donors, sectors or corporate partners.
Finally, this fall is a good time to strengthen scenario planning. Rather than trying to predict exactly where the economy or trade relationships will go, boards and leadership teams can identify several plausible scenarios and define what actions they would take under each one.
The key takeaway for charities is simple: plan for volatility, protect liquidity, stay close to your donors, keep an eye on changing community needs. The organizations that enter the fall with flexible budgets, clear priorities and strong relationships will be better positioned to respond – whatever the next few months bring.
Resources:
A quarterly report from the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council, presenting the Bank’s base-case projection for inflation and growth in the Canadian economy, and its assessment of risks. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/
Government of Canada Economic Outlooks and Forecasts
https://budget.canada.ca/update-miseajour/2026/report-rapport/overview-apercu-en.html#a23
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